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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

TABLE 8
Disaggregation of Factors Causing Increase in Enrollments in the Period during Which ER Rises from 40 Percent to 95 Percent, Based on Hypothetical LDC
			Percent Due to		
	Demography Alone	ER Alone	Both Factors Combined	Increase in Pupil Numbers	
				Absolute	Percent
Very rapid rise in ER: from 40 percent to 95 percent in 10 years					
High fertility Declining fertility Rapidly declining fertility	14.3 14.0 13.0	66.1 66.8 69.0	19.6 19.2 18.0	110,000 109,000 106,000	208 206 200
Rapid rise inER: from 40 percent to 95 percent in 20 years					
High fertility Declining fertility Rapidly declining fertility	25.0 20.7 14.0	40.7 50.8 66.8	34.3 28.5 19.2	179,000 143,000 109,000	338 270 206
Slower rise in ER: from 40 percent to 95 percent in 30 years					
High fertility Declining fertility Rapidly declining fertility	30.9 22.4 13.3	26.6 46.9 55.3	42.5 30.7 31.4	274,000 155,000 106,000	517 292 200
Slow rise in ER: from 40 percent to 95 percent in 40 years					
High fertility Declining fertility Rapidly declining fertility	34.7 23.5 20.8	17.6 44.2 50.6	47.7 32.3 28.6	415,000 164,000 144,000	783 309 272
Source:  Author's calculations. population projections were computed, all with the same improvement in mortality (a rise in the expectation of life at birth from 45 years in the first 5-year period to 70 years 40 years later) but with differing assumptions about fertility: continuing high fertility, gradually declining, and rapidly declining fertility. The constant fertility projection assumed that the ratio of female births to women aged 15 to 44 remained constant throughout the projection period;' the declining fertility projection assumed that this ratio fell linearly by one half in the first 30 years and remained constant thereafter; and the rapidly declining fertility projection assumed that it fell linearly by half in the first 15 years and remained constant thereafter.?